It's early in this Corona-crisis in Ontario(late March) and kids are still enjoying an extended March Break while parents are scrambling to work at home, file for Employment Insurance and adapt to a new world of 'social distancing'. Snowbirds are returning to Ontario, met by the message to 'go straight home and don't come out for at least 14 days'.
These are strange times.
I'm being asked by clients and colleauges what this current mess means for 2020's real estate market. My answer is 'I don't know. I don't think anyone knows' ... then the specualtion begins!
This is a crisis. Most of us can agree on that much. People tend to hunker down and make as few major decisions as possible during a crisis. People don't want to make a big change if they don't need to. With housing, sometimes you need to make a change. People are losing jobs, marriages begin and end, work transfers, people die, people are born. These are the major reasons people buy and sell property, especially residential homes. This continues despite coronavirus. Job loss and marriage failures will bring more homes to the market within 6mos to a year of this crisis.
In Muskoka, we have the cottage/recreational market too. These are 2nd or 3rd homes or properties for people with above average income/wealth. The stock market has crashed and we're likely heading into a major recession -- many have lost a large portion of their savings for at least 5-10 years. My RRSP's are currently 60% of what they were 2 months ago. They are invested quite conservatively with a major bank.
Ontario real estate has a few advantages that other areas don't have. People from all over the world want to live here. To move here. There has been a never-ending flow of people (with above average money) to our province from all over the world. Many settle in the GTA, some head further north.
Muskoka, no matter what happens with the economy, will have a unique appeal to people in the GTA who want to leave and settle somewhere that feels small-town, has modern amenities, beautiful nature, and is still an easy drive to Toronto. People will continue to want to come here (Muskoka), and less people will want to leave. Supply and demand for housing should (long-term) stay as a Seller's market. Values will stay less than replacement value (what it would cost to buy land and build a house/townhome) and it will still seem like a great deal compared to Newmarket or Barrie.
My 2 cents.
